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Maritime piracy situation modelling with dynamic Bayesian networks

机译:基于动态贝叶斯网络的海盗现状建模

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摘要

A generative model for modelling maritime vessel behaviour is proposed. The model is a novel variant of the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). The proposed DBN is in the form of a switching linear dynamic system (SLDS) that has been extended into a larger DBN. The application of synthetic data fabrication of maritime vessel behaviour is considered. Behaviour of various vessels in a maritime piracy situation is simulated. A means to integrate information from context based external factors that influence behaviour is provided. Simulated observations of the vessels kinematic states are generated. The generated data may be used for the purpose of developing and evaluating counter-piracy methods and algorithms. A novel methodology for evaluating and optimising behavioural models such as the proposed model is presented. The log-likelihood, cross entropy, Bayes factor and the Bhattacharyya distance measures are applied for evaluation. The results demonstrate that the generative model is able to model both spatial and temporal datasets.
机译:提出了一种建模海上船舶行为的生成模型。该模型是动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)的新颖变体。所提出的DBN的形式为交换线性动态系统(SLDS),该系统已扩展为更大的DBN。考虑了船舶行为的综合数据构造的应用。模拟了各种船只在海上海盗情况下的行为。提供了一种方法,用于整合来自影响行为的基于上下文的外部因素的信息。生成了船舶运动状态的模拟观察结果。所产生的数据可以用于开发和评估反盗版方法和算法的目的。提出了一种新的方法来评估和优化行为模型,如提出的模型。对数似然,交叉熵,贝叶斯因子和Bhattacharyya距离度量用于评估。结果表明,生成模型能够对空间和时间数据集进行建模。

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